How much to bet?
A suitable stake depends on your bankroll, the bet's odds and your estimated edge.
Set aside a betting bankroll: money that you can afford to lose. Every stake is a fraction of it. Your stake is not fixed for life. It is optimal to adjust it as your bankroll increases or decreases.
Edge and expected value
Edge is expected profit as a percentage of the stake. A bet with a 5% edge makes 5p profit per £1 staked on average.
The larger the edge, the larger the share of your bankroll you can stake.
Kelly and half Kelly
The Kelly criterion sizes bets to maximise long-term bankroll growth using estimated probabilities and payouts.
We recommend half Kelly: half the stake the formula gives. Quarter Kelly uses a quarter.
Risk of ruin
A losing run can leave too little money to place the next bet. Smaller stakes leave more of your bankroll available. See losing runs.
Work out your stake
Flat stake is one stake for every pick, sized at the average price we back. Dynamic stakes size each bet at the price in front of you. Compare flat betting and backing to win.
£0.53 total per bet, which is 0.26% of your bankroll.
An each-way bet is two bets, so the total above is split evenly across the win and place parts. The total is sized on the win odds.
What edge should you use?
The edge achieved by our strategies (13%) assumes watching round the clock with every bookmaker open. Checking a few times a day with fewer bookmakers, your edge is likely to be lower, so use a lower figure here.
Further reading
See the value for £1
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