Stake size decides whether an edge survives the swings. Small, steady and spread.
Set aside a betting bank: money that you can afford to lose. Every stake is a fraction of it.
An edge is the gap between the price you take and the true chance. A bet with a 5% edge returns 5p per £1 staked on average. The average only shows up over hundreds of bets. Any single bet just wins or loses.
The larger the edge, the bigger proportion of your bank you can stake.
Kelly is the formula that turns your edge and the odds into a stake: what fraction of your bank to put on. The bigger the edge, the more it stakes. The longer the odds, the less, because a longshot loses more often. So higher odds and lower edges need a bigger bank behind the same stake.
We recommend half Kelly: half the stake the formula gives. Nearly all the growth, far smaller swings. At full Kelly the chance of ever halving your bank is 50%. At half Kelly it is 12.5%.
Bet too big a fraction and an ordinary losing run empties the bank before the edge can pay. Cutting your stake fraction cuts that risk faster than it cuts your growth. When in doubt, bet smaller.
Put in your bank and the edge you think you are getting. It sizes the bet.
£1.50 total per bet, which is 0.75% of your bank.
An each‑way bet is two bets, so the total above is split evenly across the win and the place part. The figure errs small on purpose: it sizes the bet off the win price, and an each‑way bet reaches the places far more often than a win‑only bet at the same price.
Our published record runs at about 20%. Treat that as the ceiling, not your number.
It assumes the top price at every bookmaker, and every pick backed the moment it appears, all day, every day. That means accounts at a lot of firms, none of them stake‑limited, and someone watching the board constantly.
Real life is a few accounts and a couple of looks a day. You will miss prices, and some will be gone by the time you get there. 10% is the more realistic number to plan around. If it turns out better than that, your bank grows faster than you planned, which is the right way round to be wrong.
Bookmakers notice big bets on value prices. £100 each way on a midweek outsider stands out. £5 does not.
Spreading small stakes across several bookmakers takes the same total value with a lower profile at each one. That keeps accounts healthy for longer, which is worth more than any single bet.
Why quiet bets matter: what gets accounts limited, and how Shrewd picks for it.
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