Each‑way value picks lose most of the time. That is normal and it is the part nobody shows you. Here is how long the runs get and what they cost.
Value on the place part turns up at longer prices. A 20/1 horse does not place often, however wrong its price is.
Say your picks place one time in three. That is two losers for every winner, spread out at random. They do not alternate politely.
At a one in three place strike, this is the longest run you should expect to hit:
| Bets placed | Longest losing run to expect |
|---|---|
| 100 | 9 |
| 200 | 10 |
| 500 | 13 |
| 1,000 | 14 |
That is the average worst run. Half the time it is longer.
A run of 14 losers is not a sign anything is broken. It is what 1,000 bets at these odds looks like.
Twenty in a row is worse than you should expect, but it happens. On a £500 bank:
| Stake | Each bet costs | 20 losers cost | Of a £500 bank |
|---|---|---|---|
| £1 each way | £2 | £40 | 8% |
| £2 each way | £4 | £80 | 16% |
| £5 each way | £10 | £200 | 40% |
| £10 each way | £20 | £400 | 80% |
Same run of bad luck in every row. At £1 each way you barely notice. At £10 each way you have almost nothing left to bet with.
The run did not change. The stake did.
Not from the losing run. From what they do during it.
Raising the stake to win it back faster. The next run is now bigger than the bank.
Quitting at the bottom. You take every loss and none of what came after.
Both convert a bad patch into a permanent one. Flat stakes, ridden out, are the only version of this that survives.
Work out the worst run you might hit. Check the bank still stands after it. Set the stake there, and leave it alone.
For most banks that lands well under 1% a bet.
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